A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
